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2012-Based Population Projections in Poole

This paper examines the 2012-based population projections for Poole for the decade 2012-2022. (The base population is the mid-year estimate at 2012.)  The projected population for each year is calculated by ageing on the population for the previous year, applying assumed local fertility and mortality rates to calculate the number of projected births and deaths, and then adjusting for migration into and out of Poole.

Key facts from the paper include:
  • Poole’s population is projected to increase by 8.1% over the 10 year period. For comparison, England’s population is projected to increase by 7.2 %.
  • The increase in Poole’s population is mainly driven by net internal (England) migration. This accounts for about three quarters of the increase in population.
  • Across local authorities in England, projected change in population varies from a fall of 1.8% in Barrow-in-Furness to an increase of 22.1% for Tower Hamlets.
  • The number of local authorities in England  with more than a quarter of their population aged 65 or over is projected to increase from 24 to 83 over the decade.  The growth in the elderly population, both locally and nationally, is arguably the most significant change in population discussed below because of its impact on health and social care provision.
  • Over the decade the increase in Poole’s population of those aged 85 or over is projected to increase by nearly one third (32%). The population of this age cohort is growing at a faster rate than the others we consider in this paper.
You can find the 2012-based Population Projections Paper here.

 

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Date Published 
<June 2014>

Last Updated
<June 2014>

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